USA: MLSSunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis CITY SC vReal Salt Lake

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.80 goals expected
St. Louis CITY SC 44%Draw 30%Real Salt Lake 26%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
74%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because St. Louis controls the xG battle (1.60 vs 1.20), signaling a match built for multiple goals.

How we get there
St. Louis CITY SCstepReal Salt Lake
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.20
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
51%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

St. Louis City average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Real Salt Lake average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

St. Louis CITY vs Real Salt Lake — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between St. Louis CITY and Real Salt Lake — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: St. Louis CITY 44% · draw 30% · Real Salt Lake 26%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Louis CITY SC 11 Real Salt Lake
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.