FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–1 Toronto FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 80%. Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 56%, the draw at 24% and Toronto FC at 20%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Louis CITY SC win
56%
Result
Draw
24%
Toronto FC win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"St. Louis's 0.84 expected-goals advantage underpins the St. Louis CITY SC or draw forecast at 81%, as their dominant shot quality makes either a home win or draw far more likely than a Toronto upset."