How it finished
St. Louis CITY SC beat Toronto FC 3–1. Bawler's model had St. Louis CITY SC in front at 56% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. St. Louis CITY SC had 18 shots (8 on target) to Toronto FC's 10 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
St. Louis CITY SC beat Toronto FC 3–1. Bawler's model had St. Louis CITY SC in front at 56% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. St. Louis CITY SC had 18 shots (8 on target) to Toronto FC's 10 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 1.1.
What was the final score in St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
St. Louis CITY SC 3–1 Toronto FC, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with St. Louis CITY SC 56%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 20%.
What were the stats in St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 2.6–1.1, Shots 18–10, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 15–5, Big chances 4–1, Corners 8–4, Saves 1–5, Fouls 16–9, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
Yes — both St. Louis CITY SC and Toronto FC scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said St. Louis CITY SC or draw 80%, it finished St. Louis CITY SC won (56% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes.