FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
St Mirren 1–2 CelticMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 83%. Bawler had St Mirren at 17%, the draw at 24% and Celtic at 59%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Mirren win
17%
Draw
24%
Celtic win
59%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Celtic or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Celtic's dominance in expected goals (1.88 to 0.92) underpins the Celtic or draw forecast, with the model projecting a 59% win probability that makes the draw-or-away-win outcome a high-confidence 83% call."