FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
St Mirren 0–3 Dundee UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was St Mirren or draw at 71%. Bawler had St Mirren at 44%, the draw at 26% and Dundee United at 29%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Mirren win
44%
Draw
26%
Dundee United win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 74%, supported by St Mirren's 0.35 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.64 that favours an open contest."