FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Sunday, 30 August 2026
St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Motherwell or draw at 70%. Bawler had St Mirren at 30%, the draw at 29% and Motherwell at 41%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Mirren win
30%
Draw
29%
Result
Motherwell win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.