FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 11 September 2026
Stade Rennais 1–0 MarseilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais or draw at 67%. Bawler had Stade Rennais at 43%, the draw at 24% and Marseille at 33%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stade Rennais win
43%
Result
Draw
24%
Marseille win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rennais defend a precarious fifth-place perch at home while Marseille hunt fourth and Champions League qualification, yet the xG gap of just 0.24 points to Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast at 86%."