Stade Rennais vs Marseille prediction — Ligue 1 · Fri 11 Sept · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Fri 11 Sept · 19:45 UK
Stade Rennais 43Draw 24Marseille 33
Our call before kickoff
67%
Stade Rennais or draw
Landed
3.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
77%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
65%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
65%

How it finished

Stade Rennais beat Marseille 1–0. Bawler's model had Stade Rennais in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Stade Rennais had 20 shots (7 on target) to Marseille's 13 (5), with 49% of the ball against 51%.

Stade RennaisFull-time statsMarseille
49%Possession51%
20Shots13
7Shots on target5
3Corners5
5Saves6
15Fouls13
1Offsides1
1Yellow cards4
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callStade Rennais or draw 67%Stade Rennais won (43% called)
Total goals3.31
Both teams to score65%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 84%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Stade RennaisMarseille
1.8
Goals+0.2
1.5
Stade RennaisMarseille
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.5
Stade RennaisMarseille
1.2
Goals+0.2
1.0

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals84%
Stade Rennais to score83%
Marseille to score79%
Over 2.5 goals65%

First half — what we expected

Stade Rennais
55%
to score before half-time
Marseille
49%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%

Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.2 / match
Marseille in their league tableLower half
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Stade Rennais vs Marseille?

Stade Rennais beat Marseille 1–0. Bawler's model had Stade Rennais in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Stade Rennais had 20 shots (7 on target) to Marseille's 13 (5), with 49% of the ball against 51%.

What was the final score in Stade Rennais vs Marseille?

Stade Rennais 1–0 Marseille, played on 11 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Stade Rennais 43%, the draw 24% and Marseille 33%.

What were the stats in Stade Rennais vs Marseille?

Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Shots 20–13, Shots on target 7–5, Corners 3–5, Saves 5–6, Fouls 15–13, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–4.

Did both teams score in Stade Rennais vs Marseille?

No. It finished 1–0, so Marseille failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Stade Rennais vs Marseille right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Stade Rennais or draw 67%, it finished Stade Rennais won (43% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Stade Rennais form →Marseille form →