FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Stoke City 4–0 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Stoke City
4–0
Stoke City win
Charlton Athletic

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Stoke City or draw at 70%. Bawler had Stoke City at 41%, the draw at 29% and Charlton Athletic at 30%. The match finished 4–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Stoke City win
41%
Result
Draw
29%
Charlton Athletic win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Charlton's desperation for points in a relegation battle clashes with Stoke's mid-table complacency, but xG favors attacking chess: Over 1.5 Goals projects at 72%."

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