FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Stoke City 1–2 Swansea CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Stoke City
1–2
Swansea City win
Swansea City

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Stoke City or draw at 78%. Bawler had Stoke City at 44%, the draw at 34% and Swansea City at 22%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Stoke City win
44%
Draw
34%
Swansea City win
22%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 0.9
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Swansea City or draw
Pre-match: 32%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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