ENGLAND: ChampionshipSaturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Stoke City vSwansea City

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Stoke City 44%Draw 34%Swansea City 22%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
70%
How we get there
Stoke CitystepSwansea City
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Swansea City or draw
32%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Stoke average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Swansea average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Stoke City fixtures & form →Swansea City fixtures & form →

Stoke vs Swansea — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Stoke and Swansea — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Stoke 44% · draw 34% · Swansea 22%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Stoke predictions & form →Swansea predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Stoke City 1–2 Swansea City
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.