FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Sunderland 1–0 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sunderland or draw at 81%. Bawler had Sunderland at 57%, the draw at 24% and AZ Alkmaar at 19%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
57%
Result
Draw
24%
AZ Alkmaar win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sunderland or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sunderland's 0.86 expected-goals advantage and 57% win probability make Sunderland or draw the model's high-confidence call at 81%, with creator Le Fée and striker Brobbey generating nearly a third of their team's attacking threat against an AZ side managed by Troy Parrott's 24% xG share alone."