How it finished
Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0. Bawler's model had Sunderland in front at 57% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Sunderland had 20 shots (5 on target) to AZ Alkmaar's 11 (2), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 2.9 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 58%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0. Bawler's model had Sunderland in front at 57% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Sunderland had 20 shots (5 on target) to AZ Alkmaar's 11 (2), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 2.9 to 1.5.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar, played on 16 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sunderland 57%, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 19%.
What were the stats in Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 2.9–1.5, Shots 20–11, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 15–7, Big chances 3–4, Corners 12–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 14–13, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
No. It finished 1–0, so AZ Alkmaar failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sunderland or draw 81%, it finished Sunderland won (57% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.