FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Sunderland 1–0 FulhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sunderland or draw at 64%. Bawler had Sunderland at 36%, the draw at 28% and Fulham at 36%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
36%
Result
Draw
28%
Fulham win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.