FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Swansea City 2–0 WatfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Swansea City or draw at 70%. Bawler had Swansea City at 42%, the draw at 28% and Watford at 30%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Swansea City win
42%
Result
Draw
28%
Watford win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.