FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Swansea City 0–0 WrexhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Swansea City or draw at 70%. Bawler had Swansea City at 42%, the draw at 28% and Wrexham at 30%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Swansea City win
42%
Draw
28%
Result
Wrexham win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Swansea's xG edge of 0.31 combined with Wrexham's nothing-to-play-for status tilts this fixture toward goal activity, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 72% call."