FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Telstar 0–4 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 69%. Bawler had Telstar at 31%, the draw at 24% and Ajax Amsterdam at 45%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
31%
Draw
24%
Ajax Amsterdam win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Ajax Amsterdam or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.