FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Friday, 14 August 2026
Telstar 1–3 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 14 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Telstar or draw at 78%. Bawler had Telstar at 51%, the draw at 27% and Sparta Rotterdam at 22%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
51%
Draw
27%
Sparta Rotterdam win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Sparta Rotterdam or draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.