FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Toronto FC 3–3 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 34%, the draw at 28% and Charlotte FC at 38%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
34%
Draw
28%
Result
Charlotte FC win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.