FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Toronto FC 2–1 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Toronto FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 40%, the draw at 32% and New England Revolution at 28%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
40%
Result
Draw
32%
New England Revolution win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
New England Revolution to win
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.