FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 2–3 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa or draw at 64%. Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 36%, the draw at 28% and Aston Villa at 37%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Tottenham Hotspur win
36%
Draw
28%
Aston Villa win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 74%, as both sides project nearly identical attacking output with Tottenham's Richarlison and Villa's Watkins combining for 57% of their respective team xG in a 2.66 total-xG fixture."