How it finished
Aston Villa beat Tottenham Hotspur 3–2. Bawler's model had Aston Villa in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 5. Tottenham Hotspur had 20 shots (7 on target) to Aston Villa's 15 (6), with 64% of the ball against 36%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.2, so Tottenham Hotspur created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa beat Tottenham Hotspur 3–2. Bawler's model had Aston Villa in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 5. Tottenham Hotspur had 20 shots (7 on target) to Aston Villa's 15 (6), with 64% of the ball against 36%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.2, so Tottenham Hotspur created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Tottenham Hotspur 2–3 Aston Villa, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Tottenham Hotspur 36%, the draw 28% and Aston Villa 37%.
What were the stats in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Full-time: Possession 64%–36%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.2, Shots 20–15, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 12–9, Big chances 3–2, Corners 11–1, Saves 3–5, Fouls 9–13, Offsides 5–2, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Yes — both Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Aston Villa or draw 64%, it finished Aston Villa won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 74%, it finished Landed.