FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 0–2 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United or draw at 63%. Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 37%, the draw at 26% and Newcastle United at 37%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Tottenham Hotspur win
37%
Draw
26%
Newcastle United win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Tottenham's fight for survival at home clashes with Newcastle's cruise, yet xG sits level at 1.50–1.44, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 79% call."