World: World CupThursday 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC

Tunisia vNetherlands

Most likely scoreline
02
12% of the time · 3.24 goals expected
Tunisia 8%Draw 19%Netherlands 73%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
81%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 81% because Netherlands' 2.38 xG dwarfs Tunisia's 0.77, creating the offensive firepower gap this market demands.

How we get there
TunisiastepNetherlands
0.74Base xG · rolling 26-match2.50
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses2.50
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
81%
Tunisia or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Tunisia average 3.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
10
12
10
6
3
1
1
3
7
9
8
5
2
1
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Cody Gakpo
Netherlands · Liverpool
42%
To score
Memphis Depay
Netherlands · Corinthians
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Tunisia vs Netherlands — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tunisia and Netherlands — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Tunisia 8% · draw 19% · Netherlands 73%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Tunisia 13 Netherlands
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.