FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Udinese 0–1 CagliariMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Udinese or draw at 71%. Bawler had Udinese at 44%, the draw at 27% and Cagliari at 29%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
44%
Draw
27%
Cagliari win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 72% confidence, fueled by Udinese's 0.34 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability at home against a Cagliari side posting just 1.11 xG."