Cagliari beat Udinese 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Udinese had 26 shots (5 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Udinese created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Cagliari beat Udinese 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Udinese had 26 shots (5 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Udinese created the better chances and still lost the game.
Udinese 0–1 Cagliari, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Udinese 44%, the draw 27% and Cagliari 29%.
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.1, Shots 26–5, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 17–3, Big chances 2–1, Corners 16–1, Saves 1–6, Fouls 10–8, Offsides 2–4, Yellow cards 2–0.
No. It finished 0–1, so Udinese failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Udinese or draw 71%, it finished Cagliari won (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Missed.