Udinese vs Cagliari prediction — Serie A · Sat 19 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept · 14:00 UK
Udinese 44Draw 27Cagliari 29
Our call before kickoff
71%
Udinese or draw
Missed
2.7
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–1
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
68%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
55%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
51%

How it finished

Cagliari beat Udinese 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Udinese had 26 shots (5 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Udinese created the better chances and still lost the game.

UdineseFull-time statsCagliari
65%Possession35%
1.9Expected goals (xG)1.1
26Shots5
5Shots on target2
17Shots inside box3
2Big chances1
16Corners1
1Saves6
10Fouls8
2Offsides4
2Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callUdinese or draw 71%Cagliari won (29% called)
Total goals2.71
Both teams to score55%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 76%Missed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 51%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

UdineseCagliari
1.5
Goals+0.3
1.2
18.5
Shots+0.5
17.9
6.5
On target+1.2
7.6
2.2
Corners+4.5
6.7
UdineseCagliari
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
8.7
Shots+0.2
8.9
3.1
On target+0.5
3.6
1.0
Corners+2.1
3.1
UdineseCagliari
1.0
Goals+0.2
0.8
9.8
Shots+0.7
9.1
3.4
On target+0.7
4.1
1.1
Corners+2.4
3.5

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Udinese to score78%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Cagliari to score70%

First half — what we expected

Udinese
50%
to score before half-time
Cagliari
36%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%

UdineseCagliari
8.71st-half shots8.9
3.11st-half shots on target3.6
1.01st-half corners3.1

First-half chances

59%Chance of 8+ shots61%
38%Chance of 10+ shots40%
56%Chance of 3+ shots on target65%
21%Chance of 5+ shots on target29%
26%Chance of 2+ corners77%
<10%Chance of 4+ corners38%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Udinese8.79.8
Shots · Cagliari8.99.1
Shots on target · Udinese3.13.4
Shots on target · Cagliari3.64.1
Corners · Udinese1.01.1
Corners · Cagliari3.13.5
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Udinese form (last 6)D W W L L L
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Udinese 3 · Draws 2 · Cagliari 0
Cagliari in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

May 2026Cagliari 0–2 Udinese
Oct 2025Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
May 2025Cagliari 1–2 Udinese
Oct 2024Udinese 2–0 Cagliari
Feb 2024Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Udinese vs Cagliari?

Cagliari beat Udinese 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Udinese had 26 shots (5 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Udinese created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Udinese vs Cagliari?

Udinese 0–1 Cagliari, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Udinese 44%, the draw 27% and Cagliari 29%.

What were the stats in Udinese vs Cagliari?

Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.1, Shots 26–5, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 17–3, Big chances 2–1, Corners 16–1, Saves 1–6, Fouls 10–8, Offsides 2–4, Yellow cards 2–0.

Did both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?

No. It finished 0–1, so Udinese failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Udinese vs Cagliari right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Udinese or draw 71%, it finished Cagliari won (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Udinese form →Cagliari form →