United States vAustralia
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because both teams project a combined 2.73 expected goals—enough offensive thrust to clear the line despite a narrow xG gap that keeps the result unpredictable.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
United States vs Australia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between United States and Australia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: United States 41% · draw 31% · Australia 28%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.