> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Friday 19 Jun, 19:00 UTC
United States vs Australia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because both teams project a combined 2.73 expected goals—enough offensive thrust to clear the line despite a narrow xG gap that keeps the result unpredictable.
Win probability
41.0% home31.2% draw27.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
United StatesstepAustralia
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + Christian Pulisic 1+ Shot on Target + 1X
Model 32.8% · @ 3.05x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+