World: World CupTuesday 07 Jul, 00:00 UTC

United States vBelgium

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.79 goals expected
United States 37%Draw 31%Belgium 31%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% probability because combined xG of 2.79 and even win odds (37% US, 31% Belgium) signal a fixture built for multiple goals despite the tight quality gap.

How we get there
United StatesstepBelgium
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.33
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
United States or draw
71%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Belgium average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium · Napoli
48%
To assist
Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium · Napoli
44%
To score
Leandro Trossard
Belgium · Arsenal
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

United States vs Belgium — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between United States and Belgium — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: United States 37% · draw 31% · Belgium 31%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
United States 14 Belgium
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.