FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Valencia 0–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Valencia or draw at 73%. Bawler had Valencia at 45%, the draw at 28% and Celta Vigo at 27%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
45%
Draw
28%
Result
Celta Vigo win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Valencia or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.