FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Valencia 2–3 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Valencia or draw at 73%. Bawler had Valencia at 47%, the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad at 27%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
47%
Draw
26%
Real Sociedad win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 79% forecast because Valencia's 0.55 xG advantage and Hugo Duro's 22% of team chances suggest enough attacking thrust to breach Real Sociedad's 1.20 expected output."