FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 3–3 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 71%. Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 71%, the draw at 18% and D.C. United at 11%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vancouver Whitecaps win
71%
Draw
18%
Result
D.C. United win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.8
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vancouver Whitecaps' home win is the model's 71% call, built on a dominant 1.56 xG advantage and Brian White's striker threat in a matchup where the hosts expect 2.40 shots on goal versus 0.84 from D.C. United."