FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 66%. Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 66%, the draw at 21% and Houston Dynamo FC at 13%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vancouver Whitecaps win
66%
Draw
21%
Houston Dynamo FC win
13%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.8
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
Pre-match: 87%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.