FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 65%. Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 65%, the draw at 20% and St. Louis CITY SC at 15%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vancouver Whitecaps win
65%
Draw
20%
St. Louis CITY SC win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vancouver Whitecaps' home win prediction sits at 65% backed by a dominant 1.25 xG advantage, with striker Brian White commanding nearly a quarter of their attacking threat."