FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 65%. Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 41%, the draw at 24% and Borussia Dortmund at 35%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
VfB Stuttgart win
41%
Draw
24%
Borussia Dortmund win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% because Stuttgart's 1.67 xG and Dortmund's 1.51 xG combine for 3.18 total, despite their narrow win-probability gap suggesting a competitive fixture."