FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Villarreal 3–1 LevanteMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal or draw at 78%. Bawler had Villarreal at 55%, the draw at 23% and Levante at 22%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
55%
Result
Draw
23%
Levante win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Villarreal's 0.90 expected-goals advantage and Gerard Moreno's presence in the final third make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 82% call, with a combined xG total of 3.12 suggesting a match unlikely to finish goalless."