FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vitória de Guimaraes or draw at 73%. Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 46%, the draw at 26% and C.D. Nacional at 27%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vitória de Guimaraes win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
C.D. Nacional win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Vitória de Guimaraes or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.