Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 23 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Vitória de Guimaraes vC.D. Nacional

Most likely scoreline
0–1
21% of the time · 1.88 goals expected
Vitória de Guimaraes 11%Draw 33%C.D. Nacional 55%
How we get there
Vitória de GuimaraesstepC.D. Nacional
0.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.50Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.38

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Vitória de Guimaraes average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). C.D. Nacional average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15
21
14
7
2
1
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
2
3
2
1
3
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Vitória de Guimaraes fixtures & form →C.D. Nacional fixtures & form →

Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 16 May 2026, Vitória de Guimaraes have won 0, C.D. Nacional have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
16 May 2026C.D. Nacional 2–0 Vitória de GuimaraesPortugal: Primeira Liga

The model's verdict for this fixture: Vitória de Guimaraes 11% · draw 33% · C.D. Nacional 55%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Vitória de Guimaraes predictions & form →C.D. Nacional predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.