FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–1 MoreirenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vitória de Guimaraes or draw at 79%. Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 54%, the draw at 25% and Moreirense at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vitória de Guimaraes win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Moreirense win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vitória de Guimaraes or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vitória de Guimaraes' Vitória de Guimaraes or draw forecast sits at 79% confidence, anchored by a dominant 0.72 expected-goals edge that suggests the hosts will either win or hold serve against a Moreirense side generating just 0.98 xG."