How it finished
Vitória de Guimaraes and Moreirense drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Vitória de Guimaraes at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Vitória de Guimaraes had 15 shots (5 on target) to Moreirense's 7 (3), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Vitória de Guimaraes and Moreirense drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Vitória de Guimaraes at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Vitória de Guimaraes had 15 shots (5 on target) to Moreirense's 7 (3), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.5.
What was the final score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–1 Moreirense, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Vitória de Guimaraes 54%, the draw 25% and Moreirense 21%.
What were the stats in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Full-time: Possession 66%–34%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.5, Shots 15–7, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 10–4, Big chances 2–2, Corners 3–0, Saves 2–2, Fouls 11–12, Offsides 1–0.
Did both teams score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Yes — both Vitória de Guimaraes and Moreirense scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Vitória de Guimaraes or draw 79%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.