FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Werder Bremen 3–2 FC AugsburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Werder Bremen or draw at 69%. Bawler had Werder Bremen at 44%, the draw at 25% and FC Augsburg at 31%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Werder Bremen win
44%
Result
Draw
25%
FC Augsburg win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because Bremen's 1.65 xG and Augsburg's 1.35 xG combine for an even, open fixture where Ducksch's striker role accounts for a quarter of the hosts' attacking threat."