FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
West Ham United 3–0 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United to win at 65%. Bawler had West Ham United at 65%, the draw at 21% and Derby County at 14%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
West Ham United win
65%
Result
Draw
21%
Derby County win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.5 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
West Ham United to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"West Ham's attacking advantage—generating 2.08 expected goals to Derby's 0.82—makes a home win the high-confidence call at 66% forecast probability."