How it finished
West Ham United beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model had West Ham United in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. West Ham United had 20 shots (7 on target) to Derby County's 5 (0), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 3.5 to 0.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won West Ham United vs Derby County?
West Ham United beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model had West Ham United in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. West Ham United had 20 shots (7 on target) to Derby County's 5 (0), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 3.5 to 0.1.
What was the final score in West Ham United vs Derby County?
West Ham United 3–0 Derby County, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with West Ham United 65%, the draw 21% and Derby County 14%.
What were the stats in West Ham United vs Derby County?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 3.5–0.1, Shots 20–5, Shots on target 7–0, Shots inside box 17–3, Big chances 3–0, Corners 5–6, Saves 0–4, Fouls 6–16, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in West Ham United vs Derby County?
No. It finished 3–0, so Derby County failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for West Ham United vs Derby County right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said West Ham United to win 65%, it finished West Ham United won (65% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No.