FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
West Ham United 2–3 FulhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United or draw at 66%. Bawler had West Ham United at 39%, the draw at 27% and Fulham at 34%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
West Ham United win
39%
Draw
27%
Fulham win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 77% confidence because Castellanos (26% of West Ham's xG) and Jiménez (25% of Fulham's xG) anchor attacking threats that project a combined 2.79 expected goals in an evenly matched cup tie."