Fulham beat West Ham United 3–2. Bawler's model favoured West Ham United at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fulham 34%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. West Ham United had 11 shots (3 on target) to Fulham's 12 (6), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Fulham beat West Ham United 3–2. Bawler's model favoured West Ham United at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fulham 34%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. West Ham United had 11 shots (3 on target) to Fulham's 12 (6), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.5.
West Ham United 2–3 Fulham, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with West Ham United 39%, the draw 27% and Fulham 34%.
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–2.5, Shots 11–12, Shots on target 3–6, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 4–4, Corners 5–4, Saves 3–0, Fouls 7–7, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 0–1.
Yes — both West Ham United and Fulham scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said West Ham United or draw 66%, it finished Fulham won (34% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.