England: EFL CupSaturday 08 Aug, 14:00 UTC

West Ham United vPortsmouth

Most likely scoreline
10
12% of the time · 2.55 goals expected
West Ham United 47%Draw 31%Portsmouth 22%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
68%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 68% because West Ham's 1.55 xG and dominant 0.56 xG advantage over Portsmouth creates enough attacking pressure for at least two goals.

How we get there
West Ham UnitedstepPortsmouth
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.06
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.99
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Portsmouth or draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

West Ham average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Portsmouth average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

West Ham vs Portsmouth — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between West Ham and Portsmouth — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: West Ham 47% · draw 31% · Portsmouth 22%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
West Ham United 31 Portsmouth
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.