FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Wrexham 2–1 SouthamptonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 68%. Bawler had Wrexham at 32%, the draw at 26% and Southampton at 42%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
32%
Result
Draw
26%
Southampton win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because Wrexham and Southampton combine for 2.90 expected goals, with Southampton's marginal xG edge (1.56 to 1.34) driving an offensive fixture despite the hosts' mid-table position."