FC Porto vs Arouca prediction — Liga Portugal · Sun 23 Aug · 20:30 UK

Liga Portugal · Sun 23 Aug · 20:30 UK
FC Porto 72Draw 18Arouca 9
Our call before kickoff
72%
FC Porto to win
Landed
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Both teams score (before kick-off)
45%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
57%

How it finished

FC Porto beat Arouca 2–0. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 72% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. FC Porto had 23 shots (10 on target) to Arouca's 4 (1), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.5.

FC PortoFull-time statsArouca
53%Possession47%
3.0Expected goals (xG)0.5
23Shots4
10Shots on target1
17Shots inside box2
9Big chances1
12Corners2
1Saves8
16Fouls8
5Offsides1
1Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callFC Porto to win 72%FC Porto won (72% called)
Total goals3.02
Both teams to score45%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

FC PortoArouca
2.3
Goals+1.6
0.7

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
FC Porto to score90%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals65%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FC Porto 4 · Draws 0 · Arouca 1
Arouca in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Feb 2026FC Porto 3–1 Arouca
Sept 2025Arouca 0–4 FC Porto
Mar 2025Arouca 0–2 FC Porto
Sept 2024FC Porto 4–0 Arouca
Feb 2024Arouca 3–2 FC Porto
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won FC Porto vs Arouca?

FC Porto beat Arouca 2–0. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 72% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. FC Porto had 23 shots (10 on target) to Arouca's 4 (1), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.5.

What was the final score in FC Porto vs Arouca?

FC Porto 2–0 Arouca, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Porto 72%, the draw 18% and Arouca 9%.

What were the stats in FC Porto vs Arouca?

Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–0.5, Shots 23–4, Shots on target 10–1, Shots inside box 17–2, Big chances 9–1, Corners 12–2, Saves 1–8, Fouls 16–8, Offsides 5–1, Yellow cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in FC Porto vs Arouca?

No. It finished 2–0, so Arouca failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 45% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for FC Porto vs Arouca right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Porto to win 72%, it finished FC Porto won (72% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 45%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →FC Porto form →Arouca form →