Spain: La LigaThursday 27 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Barcelona vAthletic Club

Most likely scoreline
20
10% of the time · 3.12 goals expected
Barcelona 61%Draw 24%Athletic Club 14%
How we get there
BarcelonastepAthletic Club
2.15Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.15Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.97

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Barcelona average 6.9 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Athletic Bilbao average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
4
2
1
1
9
9
4
1
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
7
3
1
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Barcelona 61% · draw 24% · Athletic Bilbao 14%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.