How it finished
Sweden beat Poland 3–1. Bawler's model had Sweden in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sweden had 12 shots (6 on target) to Poland's 18 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden beat Poland 3–1. Bawler's model had Sweden in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sweden had 12 shots (6 on target) to Poland's 18 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden 3–1 Poland, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sweden 40%, the draw 25% and Poland 35%.
What were the stats in Sweden vs Poland?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–0.9, Shots 12–18, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 9–9, Big chances 4–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 6–3, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Sweden vs Poland?
Yes — both Sweden and Poland scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sweden vs Poland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sweden or draw 65%, it finished Sweden won (40% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.