USA: MLSMonday 17 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Austin FC vFC Dallas

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.87 goals expected
Austin FC 28%Draw 30%FC Dallas 41%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Dallas's attacking edge (1.59 xG vs Austin's 1.28) underpins the Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, where both sides' output suggests a multi-goal affair is more likely than not.

How we get there
Austin FCstepFC Dallas
1.13Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Austin average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Dallas average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
7
4
2
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Austin vs Dallas — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Austin and Dallas — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Austin 28% · draw 30% · Dallas 41%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.